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Commentary May 13, 2012 On this page there are different views of the economy and the stock market. Consider this list to be like a stop light. Green means to Invest long, Yellow means caution is advised, and Red means to be in cash. The Unemployment Forecast Industrial Production Jobless Claims Federal Funds S&P 500 Long Term Momentum Oscillator S&P 500 Short Term Momentum Oscillator IAU Momentum Oscillator TLT Momentum Oscillator Summary: The unemployment rate in April declined to 8.12% from 8.19% in March. Jobless Claims declined to 367K from a revised 368K the previous week. Industrial Production declined slightly from February to March. Real Private Fixed Investment grew at a 1.3% annualized rate in the 1st quarter. Real GDP rose 2.2% in the 1st quarter. Disclaimer All forecasts are provided "as is". I guarantee nothing but try to provide the best forecasts or investment timing indicators that exist. The reader accepts all responsibility for the use of this information. I try to provide enough "other" indicators to help paint the macro and micro picture..
The Unemployment Forecast May 6, 2012 updated monthly The unemployment rate in April declined to 8.12% from 8.19% in March. Despite speculation that the recovery is losing steam, the unemployment rate is declining a little faster than is forecasted. The unemployment rate is forecasted to bottom out in mid-2014. This point will very likely be the start of the next recession but it will not be recognized as such until 2015 because of the slowness with which the NBER makes such determinations.
Jobless Claims Forecast May 13, 2012 Jobless Claims declined to 367K from a revised 368K the previous week. The forecast suggests the Jobless Claims will decline faster over the next couple years and start to ris in mid 2014 as is forecasted for the Unemployment rate.
Industrial Production Forecast April 21, 2012 updated monthly The Industrial Production index declined by a very slight amount in March.
Federal Funds May 6, 2012 The Federal Funds rate remained steady at 0.13% from the previous month. There is no indication that the Fed is tightening the money supply. Do not expect tightening until after the Presidential election at the earliest.
S&P 500 Long Term Momentum Oscillator Conservative Investment Timing May 13, 2012 The long term momentum oscillator gave a buy signal on January 18 which remains in effect.
S&P 500: Short Term Investment Oscillator May 13, 2012 The S&P 500 short term investment oscillator indicated a sell on 5/11/12.
IAU (Gold) Momentum Oscillator May 13, 2012 The chart to the right is the momentum oscillator for the ETF for Gold, IAU.
TLT (30 Year Treasuries) May 13, 2012 To the right is the momentum oscillator driven investment strategy for TLT - the ETF for 20+ year Treasuries.

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AAForecast@yahoo.com

Commentary

May 13, 2012

On this page there are different views of the economy and the stock market. Consider this list to be like a stop light. Green means to Invest long, Yellow means caution is advised, and Red means to be in cash.

The Unemployment Forecast
Industrial Production
Jobless Claims
Federal Funds
S&P 500 Long Term Momentum Oscillator
S&P 500 Short Term Momentum Oscillator
IAU Momentum Oscillator
TLT Momentum Oscillator

Summary:

The unemployment rate in April declined to 8.12% from 8.19% in March.
Jobless Claims declined to 367K from a revised 368K the previous week.
Industrial Production declined slightly from February to March.
Real Private Fixed Investment grew at a 1.3% annualized rate in the 1st quarter.
Real GDP rose 2.2% in the 1st quarter.

Disclaimer

All forecasts are provided "as is". I guarantee nothing but try to provide the best forecasts or investment timing indicators that exist. The reader accepts all responsibility for the use of this information. I try to provide enough "other" indicators to help paint the macro and micro picture..

The Unemployment Forecast

May 6, 2012 updated monthly

The unemployment rate in April declined to 8.12% from 8.19% in March.

Despite speculation that the recovery is losing steam, the unemployment rate is declining a little faster than is forecasted.

The unemployment rate is forecasted to bottom out in mid-2014. This point will very likely be the start of the next recession but it will not be recognized as such until 2015 because of the slowness with which the NBER makes such determinations.

Jobless Claims Forecast

May 13, 2012

Jobless Claims declined to 367K from a revised 368K the previous week. The forecast suggests the Jobless Claims will decline faster over the next couple years and start to ris in mid 2014 as is forecasted for the Unemployment rate.

Industrial Production Forecast

April 21, 2012 updated monthly

The Industrial Production index declined by a very slight amount in March.

Federal Funds

May 6, 2012

The Federal Funds rate remained steady at 0.13% from the previous month. There is no indication that the Fed is tightening the money supply. Do not expect tightening until after the Presidential election at the earliest.

S&P 500 Long Term Momentum Oscillator

Conservative Investment Timing

May 13, 2012

The long term momentum oscillator gave a buy signal on January 18 which remains in effect.

S&P 500: Short Term Investment Oscillator

May 13, 2012

The S&P 500 short term investment oscillator indicated a sell on 5/11/12.

IAU (Gold) Momentum Oscillator

May 13, 2012

The chart to the right is the momentum oscillator for the ETF for Gold, IAU.

TLT (30 Year Treasuries)

May 13, 2012

To the right is the momentum oscillator driven investment strategy for TLT - the ETF for 20+ year Treasuries.